Garst Crash Dashboard v2.4 - Tier Heatmap with Scores

Scores: -100 to +100 (Negative = Crash Risk, Positive = Healthy). Color/Size = Magnitude. Updated: November 11, 2025

Category / Indicator Tier 1 (Real-Time Alerts) Tier 2 (Weekly Monitoring) Tier 3 (Monthly/Quarterly Check)
Market Internals & Breadth
Advance/Decline Line — Compares advancing to declining stocks. -85
New 52-Week Highs vs Lows — Tracks leadership or weakness breadth. 0
% Stocks Above 200-Day MA — Long-term trend participation gauge. 45
Volume Ratio (Down vs Up Days) — Tests selling vs buying intensity. -35
NYSE Tick Extremes — Captures intraday sentiment extremes. -42
Market Cap Concentration — Identifies narrow leadership risk. -78
Breadth Thrusts — Measures sudden expansions in participation. 28
Sector New Lows — Sectoral deterioration indicator. -92
RSI Oversold Ratio — Gauges short-term exhaustion. -55
Circuit Breaker Triggers — Monitors panic thresholds. -70
Hindenburg Omen — breadth breakdown warning. -48
McClellan Oscillator — confirms weekly trend strength. 32
S&P 500 Advance-Decline Ratio — weekly market health gauge. 5
Volatility & Options Markets
VIX Level — Baseline volatility gauge. -88
VIX Term Structure — Shape of volatility curve. -40 -25
SKEW Index — Tail-risk pricing indicator. -30
Put/Call Ratio — Sentiment bias toward protection. -38
Institutional Put Flow — Smart-money hedging intensity. -52
Implied Vol Dispersion — Divergence among sectors. 0
Aggressive Option Buys vs Sells — Flow-based sentiment measure. -65
Short Put Exposure — Market complacency indicator. -95
VIX Futures Curve Slope — Forward fear dynamics. -22
IV Rank — Relative implied volatility percentile. -45
VIX Level & Spikes — short-term volatility warning -35
VVIX Spikes — volatility of volatility -75
Credit & Liquidity Stress
TED Spread — Short-term credit risk between banks. -80
High-Yield Credit Spread — Risk premium expansion in junk bonds. -55
CDS Index Moves — Cost of default protection trend. -28
Treasury Yield Curve — Inversion or steepening risk signal. -60
ETF Bid/Ask Spread — Trading liquidity measure. 10
Repo Market Rates — Collateral stress gauge. -20
Dealer Funding Stress — Leverage funding cost signal. -68
EM Sovereign Spread — Global credit contagion indicator. -40
Margin Loan Utilization — Risk-on leverage proxy. -90
Commercial Paper Rates — Corporate short-term funding health -15
Macro & Economic Shocks
PMI Surprise — Business condition deviation. 25
Unemployment Claims — Labor stress signals. -30
Real Yields — Policy tightening impact. 0
Inflation Surprise — Shock to purchasing power. -18
Economic Surprise Index — Overall data momentum. 12
LEI Slope — Forward economic trajectory. -50
Trade or Tariff Shocks — External pressure triggers. -82
Earnings Revision Ratio — Profit outlook changes. 20
Consumer Confidence — Sentiment-driven spending signal. -35
Policy Uncertainty — Macroeconomic risk premium gauge. -100
Sahm Rule Trigger -75
Buffett Indicator -85
MM Manufacturing Cycle Index -40
Shiller CAPE Ratio -60
Sentiment & Leverage
Margin Debt Level — Aggregate leverage in equities -88
Hedge Fund Leverage — Institutional risk appetite -70
Retail Positioning — Crowd behavior indicator -25
Mutual Fund / ETF Flows — Retail allocation trends -45
Short Interest Ratio — Bearish conviction level 15
Investor Surveys — Sentiment bias checks 0
Leveraged ETF Funding Costs — Risk cost dynamics -20
Leveraged Product Concentration — Product exposure clustering -55
Cross-Asset Correlation — Systemic risk spread proxy -30
Panic Keyword Volume — Public fear sentiment online -65
Derivatives & Forward Market Stress
SPX Futures Basis — Futures vs spot valuation gap -28
Futures Open Interest Change — Positioning trend shift -22
Dealer Gamma Exposure — Hedging imbalance measure -72
CFTC Positioning — Speculative positioning overview 0
Cross-Asset Futures Correlation — Intermarket risk linkage -35
VIX Futures OI & Roll Yield — Volatility term tension -50
Swap Spread — Credit risk in swap pricing -42
Variance Swap Pricing — Volatility premium structure -38
Cross-Currency Basis Swaps — FX funding stress proxy -25
Total Derivative Notional Change — Global leverage pressure -80
HIGH RISK
Total Score: -1423